Application of Uncertainty in Prospect Analysis


Geologists, explorationists and reservoir engineers involved in prospect analysis.


- Prospect definition - leads and prospects
- Prospect volumetric calculation
- Bulk Rock Volume
- Rock parameters - Reservoir cut-off, net reservoir and porosity
- Fluid parameters - Hydrocarbon saturation and formation volume factor
- Recovery factor
- Assessment of uncertainty in volumetric input definition
- Prospect risking
- Basic probability
- Risk factors
- Source/Reservoir/Trap/Seal/Timing
- Systematic application of probabilities and benchmarking
- Quantification of volumetric uncertainty
- Monte Carlo Analysis technique
- Inputs and probability distribution
- Outputs and application of results
- Uncertainty in hydrocarbon charge
- Quick-look methods of volume estimation
- Application of results in Monte Carlo analysis of prospects
- Development of structured work-flows

Learning Objectives

The aim of the course is to give the participant the necessary skills to undertake prospect evaluation using Crystal Ball software.



Number of Participants

Max 20



Software Used

Crystal Ball

Course Format

Classroom exercises and presentations

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