Application of Uncertainty in Prospect Analysis

Audience

Geologists, explorationists and reservoir engineers involved in prospect analysis.

Content

  • Prospect definition - leads and prospects
  • Prospect volumetric calculation
  • Bulk Rock Volume
  • Rock parameters - Reservoir cut-off, net reservoir and porosity
  • Fluid parameters - Hydrocarbon saturation and formation volume factor
  • Recovery factor
  • Assessment of uncertainty in volumetric input definition
  • Prospect risking
  • Basic probability
  • Risk factors
  • Source
  • Reservoir
  • Trap/seal
  • Timing
  • Systematic application of probabilities and benchmarking
  • Quantification of volumetric uncertainty
  • Monte Carlo Analysis technique
  • Inputs and probability distribution
  • Outputs and application of results
  • Uncertainty in hydrocarbon charge
  • Quick-look methods of volume estimation
  • Application of results in Monte Carlo analysis of prospects
  • Development of structured work-flows

Duration

3-day

Number of Participants

Max 20

Prerequisites

None

Software Used

Crystal Ball™

Course Format

Classroom exercises and presentations

Audience

Geologists, explorationists and reservoir engineers involved in prospect analysis.

Content

- Prospect definition - leads and prospects
- Prospect volumetric calculation
- Bulk Rock Volume
- Rock parameters - Reservoir cut-off, net reservoir and porosity
- Fluid parameters - Hydrocarbon saturation and formation volume factor
- Recovery factor
- Assessment of uncertainty in volumetric input definition
- Prospect risking
- Basic probability
- Risk factors
- Source/Reservoir/Trap/Seal/Timing
- Systematic application of probabilities and benchmarking
- Quantification of volumetric uncertainty
- Monte Carlo Analysis technique
- Inputs and probability distribution
- Outputs and application of results
- Uncertainty in hydrocarbon charge
- Quick-look methods of volume estimation
- Application of results in Monte Carlo analysis of prospects
- Development of structured work-flows



Learning Objectives

Duration

3-day

Number of Participants

Max 20

Prerequisites

None

Software Used

Crystal Ball

Course Format

Classroom exercises and presentations

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